DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 230658
SWODY3
SPC AC 230656

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1256 AM CST FRI NOV 23 2007

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL GULF
COAST AND MID SOUTH...

..SYNOPSIS...

CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY NEGATIVELY-TILTED WHILE RAPIDLY EJECTING
NEWD TROUGH THROUGH THE ARKLATEX INTO THE MID SOUTH. AN
ACCOMPANYING 80-90 KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK WILL PROPAGATE NNEWD
THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY DURING THE PERIOD WITH THE
STRONGEST...DEEP LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT DEVELOPING EWD FROM ERN
PARTS OF OK/TX INTO THE MID SOUTH AND LOWER MS VALLEY.

IN THE LOW LEVELS...PRIMARY SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN
CONSIDERABLY WHILE DEVELOPING NNEWD FROM OFF THE SERN TX/SWRN LA
COASTS NNEWD THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY. TRAILING...STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH EWD INTO THE CNTRL GULF COAST STATES BY MONDAY
MORNING.

..CNTRL GULF COAST INTO THE MID SOUTH...

LOW-LEVEL MASS RESPONSE TO APPROACH OF DYNAMIC UPPER TROUGH WILL
RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE INTENSIFICATION TO SLY LLJ OVER THE LOWER MS
VALLEY SUNDAY...AND EVENTUALLY CNTRL GULF COAST INTO TN VALLEY
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SUPPORT THE RAPID NWD TRANSPORT OF A MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER /DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S/ AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW AND COLD
FRONT WITH AIR MASS BECOMING AT LEAST MARGINALLY UNSTABLE FOR
SURFACE-BASED PARCELS. PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS WILL LIMIT NEWD
ADVANCEMENT OF SYSTEM WARM SECTOR WITH THE STRONGEST DESTABILIZATION
OCCURRING OVER CNTRL/SRN LA INTO MS...AL AND EVENTUALLY THE FL PNHDL
SUNDAY NIGHT.

VERTICAL SHEAR...BOTH DEEP LAYER AND IN THE LOW LEVELS...WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD ACROSS EXPANDING WARM SECTOR WITH
ENVIRONMENT BECOMING SUPPORTIVE OF BOWING AND SUPERCELL STRUCTURES
WITH A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES.

.MEAD.. 11/23/2007

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