SWOD48
SPC AC 230805
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0205 AM CST FRI NOV 23 2007
VALID 261200Z - 011200Z
..DISCUSSION...
CONSIDERABLE MODEL VARIABILITY EXISTS IN TRACK OF UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ON MONDAY...NOV 26TH /DAY 4/. THESE DATA DO
SUGGEST THAT COLD FRONTAL TSTMS WILL LIKELY MOVE/DEVELOP FROM THE TN
VALLEY AND CNTRL GULF STATES EWD THROUGH THE CNTRL/SRN APPALACHIANS
INTO THE PIEDMONT REGION AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...ANY SEVERE THREAT
REMAINS QUITE UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES IN THE SYNOPTIC
SYSTEM TRACK AS DEPICTED BY BOTH ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC MODEL
GUIDANCE. THEREFORE...NO SEVERE WEATHER AREA WILL BE DELINEATED.
THEREAFTER...NEXT STRONG TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE NATION DURING THE LATTER
HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...NOV 28TH AND
29TH /DAYS 6 AND 7/. CURRENTLY...IT APPEARS THAT RICHER BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE PUSHED WELL S OF THE GULF COAST /OWING TO
PRIOR FRONTAL PASSAGE/...AND ONLY A MODIFIED CP AIR MASS WILL RETURN
NWD AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. WHILE TSTMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE GULF COAST STATES...INSTABILITY WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED.
.MEAD.. 11/23/2007
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