SWODY2
SPC AC 310551
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1151 PM CST WED JAN 30 2008
VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ERN
CAROLINAS NWD INTO DELMARVA...
..ERN CAROLINAS NWD DELMARVA...
THE STG MID-LVL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY DIGGING INTO THE SRN
PLAINS WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY-TILTED OVER THE TN/OH VLYS BY EARLY
FRI...THEN TRANSLATE INTO NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z SAT. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY 240 METER HEIGHT FALLS AND A 100+ KT JET...WITH
STRONGEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT MOVING FROM THE SRN APLCNS EARLY FRI
THEN ACROSS NC...THE MID-ATLC STATES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND FRI
AFTN/EVE. WHILE THE OCCLUDED LOW ASSOCD WITH THIS SYSTEM WEAKENS
OVER THE GRTLKS REGION...A SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER CNTRL
VA...THEN TRACK TO NRN NJ BY FRI EVE...THEN INTO MAINE BY 12Z SAT.
TRAILING THE LOW...A STG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EWD OFF THE ATLC
SEABOARD BY EARLY ON SATURDAY.
VERY STG SLY LLJ CORE WILL TRANSPORT GULF/ATLC MSTR NWD AHEAD OF THE
APCHG COLD FRONT. BY FRI AFTN...SFC DEW POINTS NR 50 DEG F WILL
LIKELY SURGE NWD AS FAR N AS SERN PA/SRN NJ TO AROUND 60 DEG F IN
ERN NC/TIDEWATER VA-MD. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST A
WEAKLY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR...ESPECIALLY OVER SERN VA AND ERN NC
WITH MLCAPES UP TO 500 J/KG. LOW CAPE VALUES WILL LIKELY BE
COMPENSATED BY VERY STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT...HOWEVER...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGLY FORCED LINE OF CONVECTION. THIS SHOULD
ORGANIZE NR THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE MORNING...THEN GROW
UPSCALE AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE INSTABILITY AXIS OVER THE ERN
CAROLINAS...SERN VA AND SRN PARTS OF DELMARVA DURING THE AFTN.
FCST HODOGRAPHS IN THE WARM SECTOR EXHIBIT STRONGLY SHEARED LOW-LVLS
WITH EFFECTIVE SFC PARCELS LIKELY ACHIEVING 400+ M2/S2 SRH AND 50+
KTS OF BULK SHEAR. IF MORE DISCRETE STORMS DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
LINE /PENDING GREATER INSTABILITY/...TORNADOES WILL BE PSBL.
OTHERWISE...SMALL SCALE LEWPS AND BOWS WILL LIKELY GIVE DMGG WIND
GUSTS.
FARTHER N...IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW FAR N THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE. NRN
END OF ANY LINEAR DEVELOPMENT MAY BE ROOTED ABOVE A STABLE
LAYER...ESP N OF CNTRL MD/DE. BUT...SUCH STRONG FORCING/AMBIENT
FLOW AND PARCELS LIKELY ROOTED WITHIN 1000 FEET OF THE GROUND...THE
POTENTIAL FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS FAR N AS SERN
PA AND CNTRL NJ DURING THE MID-LATE AFTN HOURS FRI.
.RACY.. 01/31/2008
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