SWOMCD
SPC MCD 310547
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-310815-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0113
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1147 PM CST WED JAN 30 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX INTO FAR WRN LA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 310547Z - 310815Z
ELEVATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA
BETWEEN 07-10Z. ISOLATED...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE MOST INTENSE CELLS. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS AND GOES SOUNDER IPW DATA SHOW CONSIDERABLE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX OCCURRING FROM THE MIDDLE/UPPER TX COAST NWD
ACROSS ERN TX/WRN LA ALONG EXPANDING AND STRENGTHENING LLJ AXIS.
ONGOING TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF NWRN LA AS OF 0531Z ARE OCCURRING
ALONG ERN EDGE OF LLJ...PERHAPS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LEAD MIDLEVEL
IMPULSE TRANSLATING EWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
MORE ROBUST...ELEVATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 07-10Z
AS STRONGER DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO INTENSIFYING
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS SPREADS SEWD ACROSS REGION.
CONTINUED MOISTENING AROUND 850 MB COUPLED WITH STEEPENING MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODEST ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPES INCREASING TO 500-900 J/KG. THIS
DESTABILIZATION IN CONJUNCTION WITH 40-50 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR LONGER-LIVED...ROTATING UPDRAFTS. DESPITE
THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY...SOME SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN
THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AND RELATIVELY COOL
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES.
.MEAD.. 01/31/2008
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...
29929545 30299652 31089715 32129687 32909615 33349527
33249434 32989371 32439343 31429355 30279435 30009460
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment