SWODY3
SPC AC 040818
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0218 AM CST FRI JAN 04 2008
VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH CENTERED ALONG THE WEST COAST ON SATURDAY IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE INLAND AND AMPLIFY ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AS A
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE STRENGTHENS WITH HEIGHTS RISING ACROSS THE ERN
QUARTER OF THE COUNTRY. A PACIFIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
DIG SEWD REACHING THE BASE OF THE WRN LONGWAVE TROUGH IN THE LOWER
CO RIVER VALLEY/FOUR CORNERS REGION BY 12Z MONDAY...AS A LEAD
IMPULSE TRACKS NEWD FROM THE SWRN STATES TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY.
..OZARKS TO LOWER MO/MID MS VALLEYS...
UPPER FLOW PATTERN...GIVEN DEEPENING TROUGH IN THE WEST...WILL
RESULT IN SWLY MID TO UPPER LEVEL WINDS EXTENDING FROM THE SWRN
STATES TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN SSWLY LOW LEVEL WINDS FROM THE WRN GULF THROUGH ERN TX/LA
TO THE MID MS VALLEY WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS THIS PART OF THE
COUNTRY ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT TRAILING SWD FROM A SURFACE LOW
TRACKING EWD ACROSS SRN CANADA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM THE UPPER MS
VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE SRN EXTENT OF THIS FRONT
SHOULD BECOME STATIONARY FROM NRN MO TO SWRN KS BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH A LEE SURFACE LOW...ATTENDANT TO LEAD IMPULSE...
TRACKING ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND REACHING THE KS/MO BORDER BY 12Z
MONDAY. MODELS SUGGEST THE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/WARM
AIR ADVECTION ACROSS AR/MO INTO IL AND MID LEVEL ASCENT/COOLING WITH
LEAD IMPULSE SHOULD RESULT IN WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THIS PART OF THE FRONT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD
SUPPORT ELEVATED TSTMS NEWD FROM THE OZARKS INTO PARTS OF ERN MO/IL
MAINLY AFTER 07/06Z...BUT WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT THE SIZE OF
ANY HAIL THAT FORMS IN STRONGER UPDRAFTS TO SUB-SEVERE.
.PETERS.. 01/04/2008
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment