SWOD48
SPC AC 040957
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0357 AM CST FRI JAN 04 2008
VALID 071200Z - 121200Z
..DISCUSSION...
04/00Z ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH DAY 4...
MONDAY...WITH THE TRACK OF A PACIFIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES EWD FROM THE LOWER CO RIVER
VALLEY INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN NEWD
ACROSS OK/KS TO IA/LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT. SLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN MOISTURE
ADVECTION/DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE ARKLATEX INTO MO AS AN
ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW DEEPENS FROM SWRN KS INTO IA BY 12Z TUESDAY.
BOTH MODELS AGREE WITH POTENTIAL FOR SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT FOR SEVERE
TSTMS DEVELOPING BY MONDAY EVENING ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF THE SRN
PLAINS AND SPREADING INTO THE ARKLATEX TO SRN MO MONDAY NIGHT.
DURING DAY 5...TUESDAY...THE ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER WITH THE
AMPLIFICATION AND STRENGTH OF THE SRN EXTENT OF THE DAY 4 TROUGH AS
IT MOVES EWD ACROSS E TX/LOWER MS VALLEY. THE GFS IS STRONGER AND
FASTER WITH SYSTEM REACHING CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY. DESPITE THESE DIFFERENCES...BOTH MODELS DO SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE TSTMS ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY ON
TUESDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN STRENGTH UPPER SYSTEM...
THIS OUTLOOK WILL NOT INCLUDE A REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER AREA FOR DAY
5.
.PETERS.. 01/04/2008
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