DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 061613
SWODY1
SPC AC 061610

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1010 AM CST THU MAR 06 2008

VALID 061630Z - 071200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF SRN AND ERN TX
AND FAR SW LA...

LARGE TROUGH CONTINUES TO EVOLVE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AS A STRONG
S/WV TROUGH NOW ENTERING SRN HIGH PLAINS MOVES EWD ACROSS TX.

FRONTAL ZONE TRAILS WWD ACROSS FL PENINSULA TO CENTRAL GULF AND IS
BEGINNING TO RETURN NWD AS A WARM FRONT. VERY MOIST AIR MASS S OF
FRONT OVER GULF WHILE FURTHER W A MORE MODIFIED MOISTURE RETURN IS
OCCURRING OVER NWRN GULF INTO TX AHEAD OF STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND
DEVELOPING SURFACE WAVE S TX.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING CENTRAL TX ABOVE THE
INITIALLY SHALLOW COLD FRONT NOW PUSHING SWD. COLD FRONT EXTENDED
FROM NERN TX THEN SWWD TO S OF SAT. WITH THE OBSERVED AND MODEL
FORECASTED FAIRLY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO N OF COLD FRONT
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE BOTH IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY THRU THE
AFTERNOON WITH POTENTIAL FOR HAIL GIVEN THE COOL LAPSE RATES AND
MLCAPE POTENTIALLY TO 500 J/KG. REF MCD 359

AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES AHEAD OF THE STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND
DEVELOPING SURFACE WAVE THAT WILL BE MOVING NEWD VICINITY TX
COAST...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE LIKELY NEARER THE MID/UPR
TX COAST THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE STILL SOMEWHAT ELEVATED THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG VEERING SHEAR PROFILES AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT
WILL CREATE A FAVORABLE SUPERCELL ENVIRONMENT. BY MID/LATE
AFTERNOON THERE WILL BE A CONCERN FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS NEAR AND
JUST INLAND FROM THE TX COAST. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LOCAL
DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...BUT IF SURFACE BASED
STORMS ARE ABLE TO FORM...THEN SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE
POSSIBLE.

THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVERNIGHT AND MOVES INLAND TO LWR MS VALLEY
BY 12Z FRI. LATER TONIGHT...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE GREATER
THETAE AIR NOW OVER CENTRAL GULF TO REACH CENTRAL GULF COASTAL
AREAS. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A THREAT FOR SURFACE BASED SUPERCELLS
AS FAR E AS FL PANHANDLE AS WIND PROFILES WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE AS
LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TO 50-60KT. ATTM EXPECT GREATEST THREAT TO
REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE...BUT THIS AREA MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED IN
LATER FORECASTS.

.HALES.. 03/06/2008

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