SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061559
TXZ000-061700-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0359
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0959 AM CST THU MAR 06 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL TX AND MIDDLE TX COAST
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 061559Z - 061700Z
AN ISOLATED HAIL THREAT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE TX HILL
COUNTRY EXPANDING EWD INTO THE TX COASTAL PLAIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL ENOUGH THAT WW ISSUANCE WILL BE
UNLIKELY ACROSS THE REGION.
15Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS A COLD FRONT FROM NEAR THE HOUSTON AREA
EXTENDING WWD TO JUST SOUTH OF SAN ANTONIO WITH 60 + SFC DEWPOINTS
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW ELEVATED INSTABILITY EXISTS ABOVE 850 MB AND MLCAPE
VALUES FROM RUC ANALYSIS GENERALLY RANGE FROM 250 TO 500 J/KG.
SHORT-TERM MODEL FORECASTS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH INCREASING STORM
COVERAGE GRADUALLY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THE CONVECTION
MOVING EWD TOWARD THE TX COASTAL PLAIN. THE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR AND COOLING 500 MB MID-LEVEL
TEMPS OF -17 TO -18C SHOULD PROMOTE A THREAT FOR HAIL WITH THE
STRONGER CORES. THE HAIL THREAT WILL BE MOST LIKELY ALONG THE COLD
FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF SAN ANTONIO WHERE LOCALLY GREATER
INSTABILITY EXISTS AND A FEW SFC-BASED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON.
.BROYLES.. 03/06/2008
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...SJT...
28209787 28119863 28249921 29259958 29720024 30140045
30819990 30659906 30269837 29989769 29799718 29659634
28899604 28399693
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