SWODY3
SPC AC 020824
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0224 AM CST SUN MAR 02 2008
VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SERN STATES NEWD
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...
..SYNOPSIS...
CLOSED UPPER LOW...INITIALLY OVER SRN MO...WILL BE EJECTED RAPIDLY
NEWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND INTO PA...IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AMPLIFYING SEWD FROM THE PACIFIC NW INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
ACCOMPANYING SURFACE LOW WILL SLOWLY DEEPEN AS IT MOVES IN UNISON
WITH THE UPPER LOW...WHILE TRAILING COLD FRONT ACCELERATES EWD AND
OFF THE LOWER AND MID ATLANTIC COAST BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.
..SERN STATES...
STRONG TO SEVERE SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ACROSS ERN
TN/AL EARLY IN THE PERIOD...AND SHOULD SLOWLY INTENSIFY THROUGH THE
DAY AS IT ENCOUNTERS A WARM/DESTABILIZING AIRMASS. ALTHOUGH
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE WEAK...STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS AND
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SRN TAIL OF UPPER TROUGH SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN THUNDERSTORM LINE. WIND DAMAGE SHOULD BE THE
MAIN THREAT AS THE LINE MOVES EWD TO THE GA/NRN FL COAST BY LATE IN
THE DAY.
..CAROLINAS NWD INTO SERN PA/NJ...
WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS...CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL
UNITED STATES...WILL BE ADVECTED RAPIDLY NEWD INTO THE REGION BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE SUGGESTIVE THAT THE WARM SECTOR WILL
STAY GENERALLY PCPN FREE MOST OF THE DAY...OR UNTIL STRONG FORCING
SPREADS INTO THE AREA LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. DESPITE THE WARMING
AND INCREASING MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER... DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE
MID 60S IN THE CAROLINAS TO THE UPPER 50S IN ERN PA/NJ...INSTABILITY
WILL BE WEAK DUE TO POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. EVEN WITH THE WEAK
INSTABILITY...VERY STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS...INCLUDING 50-70 KT
AT 850 MB...AND INTENSE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR A STRONGLY FORCED LINE OF STORMS/BOW ECHOES
TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL SYSTEM EWD THROUGH THE AREA LATE
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. WIND DAMAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN
THREAT...THOUGH STRONGLY CURVED HODOGRAPHS/LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND A
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WOULD ALSO FAVOR A POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES
WITHIN ROTATING BOW HEADS.
..SOUTH CENTRAL PA/WV/ERN KY/WRN VA...
A LINE OF STRONGLY FORCED CONVECTION WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS. INTENSE ENVIRONMENTAL WIND FIELDS
MAY SUPPORT A FEW ISOLATED WIND GUSTS...BUT THE POTENTIAL AT THIS
TIME APPEARS LOW SINCE THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE RELATIVELY COOL
AND STABLE.
.IMY.. 03/02/2008
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