SWOD48
SPC AC 020901
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0301 AM CST SUN MAR 02 2008
VALID 051200Z - 101200Z
..DISCUSSION...
MREF/GFS/EURO ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT OF A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY MAR 5/6...AND
THEN SHIFTING EWD TO THE EAST COAST BY MAR 9TH. THIS WILL MAINTAIN
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND MOSTLY COOL/STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ONLY HINT OF A POSSIBLE BRIEF SEVERE
THREAT IS ON MAR 8 IN FL...AS THE GFS AMPLIFIES A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...IN THE SRN PORTION OF THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH. THIS RESULTS
IN A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE GULF AND MOVING ACROSS FL.
HOWEVER...ATTM FOLLOWING EURO/MREF SOLUTIONS OF A MORE POSITIVELY
TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND CONSEQUENTLY WEAK SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPMENT ON BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY...SO SEVERE THREAT APPEARS QUITE
LOW DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
.IMY.. 03/02/2008
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