SWOD48
SPC AC 030758
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0258 AM CDT THU APR 03 2008
VALID 061200Z - 111200Z
..DISCUSSION...
A COUPLE OF COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE FORECAST TO ROTATE FROM
THE NRN ROCKIES TO THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS...NEWD TO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION SUN-TUE/ DAYS 4-6. THOUGH THE LARGE SCALE FORCING AND COLD
AIR ALOFT COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR TWO...GULF
MOISTURE RETURN AND CONSEQUENT INSTABILITY WILL BE TOO WEAK TO
CONSIDER A SEVERE WEATHER AREA.
HOWEVER...THE SEVERE THREAT IS LIKELY TO INCREASE OVER PORTIONS OF
THE SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS ON WED /DAY 7/ AND THU /DAY 8/...AS THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DEVELOP A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE SWRN PORTIONS OF
THE COUNTRY ON TUESDAY. THE PLACEMENT OF THIS UPPER TROUGH WOULD BE
FAVORABLE FOR RICHER GULF MOISTURE TO BEGIN RETURNING NWD ON TUE...
BEFORE THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EWD WED AND THU. THOUGH SEVERE STORMS
APPEAR SOMEWHAT PROBABLE BY MID NEXT WEEK...WILL WAIT ANOTHER DAY OR
SO FOR AN OUTLOOK AREA AS TOO MUCH DIVERGENCE EXISTS BETWEEN THE
GFS/ECMWF/MREF MODELS REGARDING THE AMPLITUDE AND EWD EJECTION OF
THIS SYSTEM.
.IMY.. 04/03/2008
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