MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0535

ACUS11 KWNS 031022
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031022
ARZ000-031215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0535
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0522 AM CDT THU APR 03 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/NRN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 031022Z - 031215Z

A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT MARGINALLY SVR HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH
STRONGER ELEVATED TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL/NRN AR THROUGH
MID-MORNING. THESE STORMS MAY BEGIN IMPACTING WRN PORTIONS OF KMEM
METRO AREA BY 13-14Z.

STRONGEST LOW/MID-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION WAS SHIFTING NEWD FROM NE
TX AND SE OK INTO CNTRL/WRN AR JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK. VWP/ PROFILER
SHOW A 40 KT SWLY LLJ IMPINGING ON A BAROCLINIC ZONE SITUATED IN THE
RED RVR VLY...AUGMENTING THE WARM ADVECTION PROFILES. THE RESULT
HAS BEEN FOR SPORADIC ELEVATED TSTMS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NEWD ACROSS
MUCH OF AR DURING THE EARLY MORNING. SINCE 09Z...THERE HAS BEEN A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN INTENSITY. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT THE
STORMS WERE DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A STRONGER UPSTREAM
CAP WHERE MUCAPE WAS AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG. THE INSTABILITY AXIS
SHOULD SHIFT NEWD INTO SRN/CNTRL AR WITH TIME THIS MORNING AND WILL
SUPPORT OCCASIONAL STRONGER UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SVR HAIL.

00Z WRF-NSSL HAS MODELED THIS CONVECTION WELL THIS MORNING AND
SUGGESTS THAT THE ACTIVITY SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE MID-MORNING
HOURS. IN FACT...THIS MODEL SUGGESTS THAT THERE IS A LOW
PROBABILITY FOR AN ISOLD SUPERCELL THREAT ACROSS CNTRL AR...WHICH IS
NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE QUESTION GIVEN THE AVAILABILITY OF NEARLY 50
KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. BUT...MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE
MULTICELLULAR.

.RACY.. 04/03/2008

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...TSA...

34819435 35589434 35699419 35759404 35859375 35879343
35879318 35839256 35809233 35689174 35549116 35419070
35259040 35139036 34929050 34559084 34219111 33959141
33819176 33839210 33989266 34199348 34299370 34639413

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