Monday, April 14, 2008

DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 140806
SWOD48
SPC AC 140805

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0305 AM CDT MON APR 14 2008

VALID 171200Z - 221200Z

..DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT A TROUGH/LOW WILL EJECT EWD INTO THE
SRN PLAINS THU. APR. 17 /DAY 4/...BUT DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH RESPECT
TO TIMING...INTENSITY...AND ORIENTATION OF THE FEATURE. THE
DIFFERENCES ARE MORE SIGNIFICANT AT THE SURFACE...WHERE THE GFS
DEPICTS A WEAK LOW/FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL OK BY LATE AFTERNOON...WHILE
THE ECMWF SHOWS THE FRONT ROUGHLY 100 MILES FURTHER SE.

IN ADDITION TO THE MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE
SYNOPTIC-SCALE FEATURES...DEGREE OF SEVERE THREAT IS ALSO A QUESTION
ATTM...WITH ONLY MODEST MOISTURE ANTICIPATED IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...BENEATH A FAIRLY STOUT CAP. ALL IN ALL...CONFIDENCE REMAINS
TOO LOW THIS FORECAST TO INTRODUCE A THREAT AREA...BUT IT APPEARS
ATTM THAT AT LEAST A LOW-PROBABILITY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE REQUIRED
OVER PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS IN LATER FORECASTS.

BEYOND DAY 4...MODEL DIFFERENCES INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE...AND THUS
WILL NOT ATTEMPT TO HIGHLIGHT ANY THREAT AREAS FOR LATER IN THE
PERIOD.

.GOSS/COOK.. 04/14/2008

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