SWODY1
SPC AC 050554
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1254 AM CDT MON MAY 05 2008
VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS WEST/NORTHWEST TX AND
FAR EASTERN NM INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL KS AND SOUTHERN NEB...
...FAR EASTERN NM AND WEST/NORTHWEST TX INTO KS/SOUTHERN NEB...
OWING TO AN ELEVATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT REGIME...AT LEAST ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING /OR DEVELOP IN THE MORNING/ ACROSS
WESTERN KS...AS WELL AS CENTRAL TX. ON THE PERIPHERY OF ANY SUCH
ACTIVITY...STORMS ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE PATTERN WILL BE FAIRLY DIFFUSE BENEATH A SLOWLY
DAMPENING UPPER RIDGE...AMPLE HEATING COMBINED WITH SEVERAL LOW
AMPLITUDE IMPULSES CROSSING THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE SHOULD
PROVIDE A MODEST FOCUS FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY RETURN NORTH AND
WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY...WITH 50S F DEWPOINTS
ACROSS KS/NORTHWEST TX...AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S F DEWPOINTS ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST TX THIS AFTERNOON. COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR POCKETS OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG FROM SOUTHWEST TX TO NEAR
THE KS/NEB BORDER. WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 35-40 KT IN MOST
LOCALES...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON AND/OR EARLY IN STORM EVOLUTIONS.
AS A MODERATE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES DURING THE
EVENING...AN UPSCALE EVOLUTION INTO SEVERAL STORM CLUSTERS COULD
OCCUR/SPREAD EASTWARD ANYWHERE WITHIN A CORRIDOR FROM NORTHWEST TX
INTO NORTHERN KS/SOUTHERN NEB. ACCORDINGLY...SOMEWHAT HIGHER SEVERE
CONCENTRATIONS MAY MATERIALIZE WITHIN THE EXISTING CATEGORICAL
SLIGHT RISK...HOWEVER SEVERAL UNCERTAINTIES/MODEL GUIDANCE
VARIABILITIES PRECLUDE SUCH A FORECAST DELINEATION AT THIS TIME.
OVERALL...THE MAIN HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE HAIL/ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
...COASTAL CAROLINAS...
REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN/SHIFT SLOWLY
EASTWARD ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS TODAY...WITH A BELT OF
MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW PERSISTING ACROSS THE REGION.
AMPLE AFTERNOON HEATING/SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE LIMITED...STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES/MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH THE MOST VIGOROUS
UPDRAFTS INTO EARLY EVENING.
..GUYER/SMITH.. 05/05/2008
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