Saturday, May 17, 2008

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 170510
SWODY1
SPC AC 170508

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1208 AM CDT SAT MAY 17 2008

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

BLOCKING SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN U.S. ALONG WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
ERN STATES. SEVERAL JET AND ATTENDANT VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL ROTATE
THROUGH THE ERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH. CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER NRN MEXICO
IS FORECAST TO SHIFT ESEWD AND INTO SRN TX. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SWD THROUGH FL...WHILE SEVERAL SURFACE TROUGHS ADVANCE SWD AND EWD
THROUGH THE UPPER MS AN OH VALLEYS IN ASSOCIATION WITH VORTICITY
MAXIMA ROTATING THROUGH LARGER SCALE UPPER TROUGH.


...GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY REGION...

UPPER JET MAX NOW MOVING INTO WI WILL CONTINUE SEWD THROUGH BASE OF
UPPER TROUGH AND INTO THE OH VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...
WHILE AN UPSTREAM SPEED MAX DROPS SEWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. IN
SITU MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE
30S AND 40S. HOWEVER...COLD AIR ALOFT NORTH OF JET MAXIMA WITH
TEMPERATURES AOB -18C AT 500 MB AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
RESULT IN MLCAPE AOB 500 J/KS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES WITH
STORMS MORE NUMEROUS WITHIN ZONES OF ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MIGRATING JET AND ATTENDANT VORTICITY MAXIMA. GIVEN STRONG LARGELY
UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER KINEMATIC PROFILES...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
DRY BOUNDARY LAYERS...THREAT WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED
STRONG-DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.


...CNTRL FL...

WITH RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
DESTABILIZE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES RESULTING FROM WARM MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL LIMIT DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE AOB 1000
J/KG. A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND IN
ASSOCIATION WITH SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES. THE STRONGER STORMS MAY
BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED WET MICROBURSTS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING.

..DIAL.. 05/17/2008

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