Saturday, May 17, 2008

DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 170559
SWODY2
SPC AC 170557

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1257 AM CDT SAT MAY 17 2008

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE ERN CONUS THIS
PERIOD...AS THE UPPER VORTEX DRIFTS ESEWD ACROSS SERN CANADA AND THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. MEANWHILE...A LARGE RIDGE -- CENTERED JUST OFF
THE CA COAST WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE U.S. THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...TROUGHING IN LEE OF THE ROCKIES DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF THE PERIOD SHOULD SHIFT EWD INTO THE PLAINS/CANADIAN
PRAIRIE. MEANWHILE...A WEAK/REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE APPALACHIANS BY AFTERNOON...AND THEN CONTINUE EWD/OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST AND SEWD ACROSS GA AND INTO FL THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

...MID-ATLANTIC REGION WSWWD INTO NRN GA/PARTS OF NRN AL...
MINIMAL DESTABILIZATION IS FORECAST ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
AND WSWWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS INTO NRN GA/NERN AL AHEAD OF A
FAST-MOVING COLD FRONT. THOUGH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LIMITED
INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THAT MOST STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE
LEVELS. NONETHELESS...STRONG/ROUGHLY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP-LAYER WIND
FIELD WOULD SUGGEST A THREAT FOR LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH ANY STRONGER LINE SEGMENT. THUS...WILL INTRODUCE
LOW /5%/ SEVERE PROBABILITY ACROSS THIS REGION.

...PARTS OF NRN AND CENTRAL FL...
WEAK LAPSE RATES/MINIMAL INSTABILITY BUT RELATIVELY STRONG MID-LEVEL
WLYS SHOULD CHARACTERIZE THE THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT
ACROSS THE NRN 2/3 OF THE FL PENINSULA DURING THE AFTERNOON. WHILE
WEAK INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THAT STORMS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY
WEAK...A STRONGER CELL OR TWO CAPABLE OF BRIEF GUSTY WINDS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.

..GOSS.. 05/17/2008

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