SWODY3
SPC AC 170728
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 AM CDT SAT MAY 17 2008
VALID 191200Z - 201200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE-SCALE PATTERN EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE DAY 3...ASIDE FROM A
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WHICH SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY EWD/ONSHORE ACROSS THE
PAC NW...FORCING THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE EWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES.
OTHERWISE...THE MEAN LARGE-SCALE ERN TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
EAST...AND A BROAD ZONE OF NWLY FLOW FROM THE NRN ROCKIES SEWD INTO
THE SOUTHEAST.
AT THE SURFACE...A VERY WEAK LOW/FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE SEWD
ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY...WHILE A DEEP LOW REMAINS ACROSS
FAR NRN NEW ENGLAND/ERN CANADA.
...OZARKS EWD INTO THE MID MS/LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS...
WHILE MODELS DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AND PLACEMENT...ALL AGREE
THAT A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE SEWD
OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE OZARKS/MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEY
REGION...WITHIN DEEP NWLY FLOW AT MID/UPPER LEVELS.
WITH SURFACE FLOW FORECAST TO BECOME SLY WITH TIME AS THE SURFACE
SYSTEM MOVES SEWD...SOME NWD RETURN OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED. MODELS
SUGGEST THAT MOISTENING/DESTABILIZATION AND A WEAKENING CAP COULD
ALLOW ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR BY LATE
AFTERNOON...NEAR THE SURFACE SYSTEM. WITH MODERATE NWLY FLOW
ALOFT...A LIMITED THREAT FOR LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR HAIL
COULD EVOLVE. THUS...WILL INTRODUCE 5% SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THIS
REGION. ANY THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING WITH THE
ONSET OF DIURNAL COOLING.
..GOSS.. 05/17/2008
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