SWODY2
SPC AC 220556
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1256 AM CDT THU MAY 22 2008
VALID 231200Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS ACROSS
NEB/KS/THE MID MO VALLEY...
...SYNOPSIS...
WRN UPPER LOW/TROUGH IS FORECAST TO RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY WWD THIS
PERIOD...WHILE THE ERN LOW/TROUGH MAKES SLOW NEWD PROGRESS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. AS A RESULT...THE RIDGE BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES IS
FORECAST TO EXPAND/AMPLIFY OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS.
AT THE SURFACE...A WEAKENING LOW SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE NERN CO
VICINITY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD...WITH A DRYLINE
EXTENDING S FROM THIS LOW AND A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING
ESEWD ACROSS FAR WRN NEB/KS/MO.
...NRN HIGH PLAINS INTO NEB/KS/THE MID MO VALLEY...
STORMS/SOME SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF THE
PLAINS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...MAINLY N OF THE SURFACE FRONT IN
ZONE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT. HOWEVER...AS LOW-LEVEL JET WEAKENS THROUGH
THE DAY AND HEIGHTS RISE SLOWLY ACROSS THE PLAINS...OVERALL
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF THE ONGOING STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH.
THE INCREASE IN CAPPING SUGGESTS THAT STORM COVERAGE SWD ALONG THE
DRYLINE INTO OK/TX SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AT BEST. HOWEVER...THE
NW-SE FRONT SHOULD REMAIN A FOCUS FOR STORM REDEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON...AS MODERATE DESTABILIZATION OF THE EXISTING MOIST
AIRMASS OCCURS.
WITH MODERATELY-STRONG SSWLYS AT MID LEVELS PERSISTING ACROSS THE
PLAINS/ALONG THE ERN FRINGE OF THE MID-LEVEL JET...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
WILL AGAIN SUPPORT SUPERCELLS...AND ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL
AND LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS. GREATEST TORNADO POTENTIAL SHOULD OCCUR
NEAR AND JUST TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT...WHERE
FAVORABLY-BACKED/SELY SURFACE WINDS WILL EXIST. ATTM...IT APPEARS
THAT THIS ZONE OF HIGHEST TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FROM N
CENTRAL KS NWD/NWWD INTO CENTRAL AND WRN NEB.
STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS LOW-LEVEL JET
REDEVELOPS ACROSS THE PLAINS...BUT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
DECREASE SLOWLY -- AND BECOME TREND MORE TOWARD HAIL -- AS BOUNDARY
LAYER STABILIZES THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
..GOSS.. 05/22/2008
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