SWODY3
SPC AC 220729
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 AM CDT THU MAY 22 2008
VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE
CENTRAL AND NRN PLAINS...
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ERN CONUS IS FORECAST TO BEGIN BREAKING
DOWN/SHIFTING EWD THIS PERIOD...AS THE ERN U.S. TROUGH BEGINS TO
PROGRESS OFF THE NAOM COAST/INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC...AND PIECES OF
THE WRN TROUGH BEGIN MOVING NEWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS.
AT THE SURFACE...LEE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BEGIN MOVING EWD INTO THE
NRN PLAINS...WHILE SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH HAS PERSISTED IN A
NW-SE FASHION ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR SEVERAL DAYS BECOMES MORE
DIFFUSE/LESS WELL-DEFINED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
...NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...
A LARGE...MOIST WARM SECTOR WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE PLAINS...AHEAD OF
BROAD AREA OF LEE-SIDE LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL BEGIN SHIFTING EWD
INTO THE NRN PLAINS AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN. WHILE
SPECIFIC FOCUS AREA FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BECOMES HARDER TO
DISCERN DAY 3...THE REMNANT NW-SE FRONT AND THE DRYLINE/LEE TROUGH
SHOULD BOTH ASSIST IN INITIATING ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION ACROSS
THE NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS.
MODERATELY-STRONG SWLY/WSWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD SPREAD A BIT
FURTHER E INTO THE NRN PLAINS...ATOP LOW-LEVEL SELYS. THUS...SHEAR
WILL AGAIN FAVOR SUPERCELLS -- AND ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. WILL INTRODUCE A
LARGE SLIGHT RISK AREA...BUT WILL REFRAIN FROM HIGHLIGHTING
HIGHER-PROBABILITY THREAT AREAS UNTIL DETAILS BECOME CLEARER.
..GOSS.. 05/22/2008
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