SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220838
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-221015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0968
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0338 AM CDT THU MAY 22 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...NEB...PARTS OF NRN/ERN KS...INTO PARTS OF SW IA/WRN
MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 220838Z - 221015Z
INCREASE/INTENSIFICATION OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...NOW WELL
UNDERWAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MISSOURI VALLEY...
APPEARS TO BE LARGELY FOCUSED ALONG ZONE OF STRONGER WARM ADVECTION
CENTERED AROUND THE 700 MB LEVEL. MODELS ARE SUGGESTIVE THAT
ACTIVITY MAY BE ENHANCED BY AN IMPULSE EMERGING FROM THE WESTERN
U.S. UPPER TROUGH...WHICH IS LIKELY TO UNDERGO SUBSTANTIAL
DEFORMATION AS IT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEBRASKA BETWEEN NOW
AND THE 12-15Z TIME FRAME.
INITIALLY WEAK TO MODERATE CAPE FOR PARCELS WITH ELEVATED LEVELS OF
FREE CONVECTION MAY STILL INCREASE EARLY THIS MORNING...AS LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE LEVELS CONTINUE TO RISE IN ASSOCIATION WITH NOCTURNAL
VEERING OF THE SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET. AND...THIS COULD SUPPORT
INCREASING NUMBERS OF STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AT
LEAST FOR AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD THROUGH DAYBREAK...BEFORE
WEAKENING TRENDS LIKELY ENSUE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR BENEATH BROADER
SCALE MID/UPPER RIDGING IS NOT STRONG...BUT MODERATE INFLOW LAYER
WINDS...VEERING WITH HEIGHT...ARE SUFFICIENT FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION.
..KERR.. 05/22/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF...
41520075 42769991 42759829 42149624 40819457 39369263
38719256 37919335 37839452 38469561 39079600 39519694
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