SWOD48
SPC AC 220856
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0356 AM CDT THU MAY 22 2008
VALID 251200Z - 301200Z
...DISCUSSION...
FORECAST MODELS /GFS AND ECMWF/ REMAIN IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH ROUGHLY DAY 6 /TUE. MAY 27/ IN DEPICTING THE EVOLUTION OF A
FAVORABLE SETUP FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. AS THE
UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS EWD INTO THE CENTRAL AND INTO THE ERN CONUS WITH
TIME WHILE DEAMPLIFYING...A TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE WEST. AS A
RESULT...A BELT OF MODERATE/SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL EVOLVE OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS ATOP SLYS AT LOW LEVELS -- RESULTING IN SHEAR
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE/SUPERCELL STORMS.
AT THE SURFACE...A BAROCLINIC ZONE IS FORECAST TO SAG SLOWLY SWD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. DAYS 4-6 /SUN. MAY 25-TUE. MAY 27/...S OF
WHICH A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY. AS
SMALL-SCALE FEATURES MOVE NEWD WITHIN THE SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW
REGIME...SEVERAL EPISODES OF SEVERE STORMS -- FROM A LEE
TROUGH/DRYLINE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS ENEWD ALONG THE SWD-SAGGING
FRONT -- ARE APPARENT DAYS 4-6.
..GOSS.. 05/22/2008
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