SWOD48
SPC AC 010842
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0342 AM CDT TUE JUL 01 2008
VALID 041200Z - 091200Z
...DISCUSSION...
MODEL SOLUTIONS INCLUDING THE GFS...ECMWF AND MREF ARE IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT WITH LARGE SCALE PATTERN THROUGH ABOUT DAY 6...AFTER WHICH
THEY BEGIN TO DISBURSE AND UNCERTAINTY INCREASES.
FRIDAY DAY 4 - ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER PARTS OF THE NRN ROCKIES AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AS A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS NEWD AND ENHANCES VERTICAL SHEAR.
OTHER STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
CNTRL ROCKIES AND SPREAD SEWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS WHERE A MOIST
SELY UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME MAY EXIST. THESE STORMS MAY POSE A THREAT
OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. DESPITE PRONOUNCED DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR...PROXIMITY TO UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK FLOW ALOFT
AND OVERALL SHEAR MAGNITUDES.
CONFIDENCE IN A MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE EVENT IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INTRODUCE A CATEGORICAL RISK FOR EITHER OF THESE AREAS AT THIS TIME.
SCATTERED STORMS WILL LIKELY ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP ALONG STALLED FRONT
FROM PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS EWD INTO THE OH VALLEY. HOWEVER...THE
WARM SECTOR WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT SO CONFIDENCE
IN AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
DAY 5 AND 6 - THREAT FOR A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE EVENT MAY INCREASE
BY DAY 6 OVER THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY AS THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT CRESTS UPPER RIDGE AND INTERCEPTS
RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THE GFS AND MOST MREF MEMBERS DEAMPLIFY
THIS FEATURE MORE THAN THE ECMWF AND SUGGEST STORMS COVERAGE COULD
REMAIN ISOLATED. HOWEVER...A RISK AREA MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS REGION
IN LATER OUTLOOKS.
BEYOND DAY 6 MODEL UNCERTAINTY INCREASES WITH LOWER PREDICTABILITY.
..DIAL.. 07/01/2008
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