SWODY1
SPC AC 201934
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0234 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2008
VALID 202000Z - 211200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF E CENTRAL
AND NERN FL...SERN GA...AND FAR SERN SC...
...E CENTRAL AND NERN FL/SERN GA/SRN SC...
CENTER OF FAY IS NOW LOCATED JUST OFF THE E CENTRAL FL
COAST...ROUGHLY HALFWAY BETWEEN DAB /DAYTONA BEACH/ AND MLB
/MELBOURNE/ -- OR JUST NNE OF CAPE CANAVERAL. LATEST GUIDANCE FROM
THE NHC FORECASTS FAY TO MOVE SLOWLY NWD...BEFORE TURNING NWWD AND
MOVING ONSHORE AGAIN JUST N OF DAB NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD. THUS
FAR TODAY...MOST OF THE STRONGER CONVECTION HAS REMAINED
OFFSHORE...AND THIS SHOULD REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
NONETHELESS...SHEAR REMAINS SUFFICIENT WITHIN THE NERN QUADRANT OF
THE STORM TO SUPPORT LOW-LEVEL ROTATION/BRIEF TORNADOES WITH ANY
SUSTAINED CELL...AND THUS WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT RISK/5% TORNADO
PROBABILITY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
...SRN ROCKIES INTO FAR W TX...
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SRN ROCKIES FROM NRN CO SWD ACROSS NM...WHERE
AIRMASS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DESTABILIZE. WHILE DEEP-LAYER WIND
FIELD IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG ACROSS THIS REGION/W OF THE SRN
PLAINS UPPER LOW...MID-LEVEL NWLYS NEAR 20 KT MAY SUPPORT A FEW
STRONGER/MULTICELL CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF BRIEF DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR
HAIL. THREAT SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
..GOSS/KIS.. 08/20/2008
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