SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201847
COZ000-NMZ000-TXZ000-202015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2126
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0147 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL CO INTO WRN AND CNTRL NM
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 201847Z - 202015Z
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND/OR LOCALLY DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EVENING. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
THE COMBINATION OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG DIABATIC
HEATING OVER THE COMPLEX TERRAIN HAVE RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES
APPROACHING 1000 J/KG. OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES ALONG WITH THE SEWD
PROGRESSION OF A WEAK MIDLEVEL IMPULSE /OR AT LEAST MOIST PLUME/ ARE
LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO THE INCREASE IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
REGION AS OF 1830Z. FURTHER BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING/DESTABILIZATION
SHOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH
ACTIVITY LARGELY REMAINING CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN DUE
ANTICIPATED...SWD STORM MOTIONS.
AREA PROFILERS AND VWPS DO INDICATE CONSIDERABLE VEERING OF WINDS
WITH HEIGHT THROUGH THE LOWEST 3 KM. HOWEVER...WIND SPEEDS REMAIN
RATHER WEAK WHICH IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE DEGREE OF STORM
ORGANIZATION/SEVERITY. STILL...LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND/OR
LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST INTENSE CELLS GIVEN THE
PRESENCE OF THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY.
..MEAD.. 08/20/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MAF...PUB...ABQ...EPZ...GJT...
32670778 34380805 35520788 37320625 37620514 36410434
33890447 32490482 31970573
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