SWODY1
SPC AC 101300
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0800 AM CDT SUN AUG 10 2008
VALID 101300Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES...NY AND NEW ENG...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NRN PLNS...
...SYNOPSIS...
ANOMALOUS...SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.
CLOSED LOW IN SRN BC WILL MOVE ENE INTO CNTRL AB BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD...WHILE ASSOCIATED IMPULSE NOW IN SE ID/NE UT CONTINUES E/NE
INTO THE WRN DAKS/NEB. IN THE EAST...COMPACT CLOSED LOW NOW OVER
SRN ONTARIO EXPECTED TO DRIFT SE INTO CNTRL PA.
AT THE SFC...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH BC/AB UPR SYSTEM WILL MOVE E
ACROSS MT AND OVERTAKE LEE TROUGH/LOW IN ERN PART OF STATE...AS WEAK
FRONT WITH WAVE NOW OVER THE SRN PLNS SETTLES SLOWLY E/SEWD. IN THE
EAST...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE LATER
TODAY/TONIGHT OVER MD/DE/NJ. THE LOW SHOULD BE CENTERED NEAR THE NJ
CST AT 12Z MONDAY.
...MID ATLANTIC STATES INTO WRN/SRN NEW ENG...
DEEP...ANOMALOUS CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
AND ERN STATES TODAY...IN SERN QUADRANT OF STRONG UPR LOW.
UNUSUALLY COOL AIR WILL BE PRESENT AT MID LVLS...WITH TEMPERATURES
AOB MINUS 15C FROM MD/DE/WV AND NRN VA NEWD INTO NY/NEW ENG.
MODERATE DEEP SHEAR WILL ALSO EXIST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE DELMARVA
REGION INTO SRN PA AND NJ...ALONG AXIS OF 35-40 KT W TO WSWLY MID
LVL JET.
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE MODEST BY AUGUST STANDARDS...WITH
AVERAGE SFC DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S.
NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN WEAK CINH AND STEEP MID LVL LAPSE
RATES...EXPECT WIDELY SCTD STORMS NOW PRESENT TO MARKEDLY INCREASE
IN STRENGTH AND COVERAGE WITH SFC HEATING LATER THIS MORNING.
COMBINATION OF INCREASING INSTABILITY WITH MODERATE SHEAR SHOULD
YIELD NUMEROUS STRONG TO SVR SUSTAINED STORMS...INCLUDING SOME
SUPERCELLS....BY EARLY TO MID AFTN. THESE SHOULD BE MOST
CONCENTRATED FROM SRN NY THROUGH CNTRL/ERN PA INTO CNTRL/ERN MD...DE
AND NJ....AND MAY PERSIST INTO TONIGHT FROM ERN NC/SE VA ACROSS THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA INTO NJ.
COOL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL
IN STRONGER/MORE SUSTAINED STORMS. DMGG WINDS AND ISOLD TORNADOES
MAY ACCOMPANY SUPERCELLS IN THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AREA INTO ERN PA/DE
AND NJ. THE STORMS...ALONG WITH A LIMITED SVR THREAT...COULD LINGER
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY IN THE NYC AREA/SRN NEW ENG...WHERE UVV AND LOW
LVL MOIST INFLOW WILL FOCUS DOWNSTREAM FROM ADVANCING UPR SYSTEM.
...NRN HI PLNS...
NRN PLNS UPR RIDGE WILL BE SLOW TO WEAKEN TODAY...ALTHOUGH
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL INCREASE FROM W TO E AS ID/UT IMPULSE
CONTINUES ENEWD. COUPLED WITH STRONG HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC
INFLUENCES...EXPECT EXISTING STORMS INVOF LEE TROUGH IN WY...AND
THOSE ASSOCIATED WITH WAA IN THE WRN DAKS...TO STRENGTHEN AND BE
ACCOMPANIED BY ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY BY EARLY AFTN. OTHER STORMS MAY
FORM A BIT LATER ALONG COLD FRONT IN CNTRL/ERN MT.
WIND PROFILES ALONG LEE TROUGH AND IN THE DAKS WILL FEATURE
SUBSTANTIAL VEERING...WITH CONVERGENT SELY LOW LVL WINDS BENEATH
MODEST WLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS SETUP COULD YIELD LOOSELY-ORGANIZED
CLUSTERS OF STORMS INCLUDING A FEW WEAK SUPERCELLS WITH SVR HAIL AND
LOCALLY DMGG WINDS THROUGH THIS EVE. LOCALLY DMGG WIND/MARGINALLY
SVR HAIL ALSO COULD ACCOMPANY FRONTAL STORMS WITH DEEP
UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW IN MT LATER TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY.
...SE OK/ARKLATEX/E TX...
TSTMS LIKELY WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND STRENGTH WITH SFC HEATING
ALONG AND AHEAD OF WEAK FRONT/WAVE MOVING SEWD FROM THE RED RVR VLY
TODAY. ACTIVITY WILL BE AIDED BY PERSISTENT SSWLY LLJ THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY. WITH SFC TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REACH 100F S OF THE
FRONT...STORMS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE RELATIVELY HIGH-BASED. COUPLED
WITH HIGH /NEARLY 2 INCH/ PW ACROSS REGION ...SETUP COULD SUPPORT
ISOLD DMGG MICROBURSTS. AT THIS TIME WILL MAINTAIN LOW
PROBABILITIES FOR SVR WIND. HOWEVER...AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK MAY
BE WARRANTED LATER TODAY IF A DISTINCT CORRIDOR BECOMES APPARENT
WHEREIN STORM-SCALE ORGANIZATION WILL MORE CLEARLY SUPPORT AN
ORGANIZED WIND THREAT.
..CORFIDI/HURLBUT.. 08/10/2008
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