SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101427
NYZ000-NHZ000-CTZ000-MAZ000-VTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-101500-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2063
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0927 AM CDT SUN AUG 10 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MID ATLC COASTAL AREAS INTO LWR HUDSON VLY/SRN
NEW ENGLAND
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH NEEDED SOON
VALID 101427Z - 101500Z
A WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.
A NARROW TONGUE OF RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA THROUGH THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND PARTS OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS CONTRIBUTING TO DESTABILIZATION WITH
BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING. INHIBITION BENEATH A SEASONABLY COLD
MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE NORTHEAST STATES IS WEAK. AND...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS UNDERWAY. INCREASE IN COVERAGE SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...PERHAPS AIDED BY A ZONE OF ENHANCED FORCING
FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION PIVOTING AROUND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
CLOSED LOW. DEEP LAYER SHEAR/MEAN FLOW FIELDS EAST OF THE
CIRCULATION CENTER ARE GENERALLY WEAK. BUT...MIXED LAYER CAPE IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG. COUPLED WITH
RELATIVELY STEEP AND STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL PROMOTE THE RISK FOR LOCALIZED
DOWNBURSTS...IN ADDITION TO THE RISK FOR HAIL.
..KERR.. 08/10/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX...
38507440 38377549 38617633 39347638 40027608 41207508
42397460 43167452 43557368 43057255 42347230 41837242
40867269 40537294 39787330 38827415
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