Sunday, August 31, 2008

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 010053
SWODY1
SPC AC 010051

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0751 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2008

VALID 010100Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF UT AND SWRN
WY...AND INTO ADJACENT E CENTRAL NV...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION...

...PORTIONS OF UT...AND ADJACENT E CENTRAL NV/SWRN WY...
STORMS CONTINUE SHIFTING ACROSS UT...WITH THE MAIN SEVERE POTENTIAL
NOW S AND E OF SALT LAKE. GREATEST THREAT NOW APPEARS TO EXIST OVER
W CENTRAL UT...WHERE THE GREATEST SHEAR/INSTABILITY JUXTAPOSITION IS
INDICATED. STRONGER FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO SHIFT ACROSS THIS
REGION WITH TIME...HOWEVER THIS SHOULD BE OFFSET BY A DECREASE IN
INSTABILITY WITH TIME -- PARTICULARLY AFTER SUNSET. WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THIS REGION...BUT EXPECT SEVERE THREAT TO BEGIN
TO WANE LATER THIS EVENING.

...CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...
HURRICANE GUSTAV CONTINUES MOVING NWWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION...TOWARD SERN LA. LATEST NHC FORECASTS THE CENTER OF GUSTAV
TO BE ROUGHLY 70 NM SSE OF BVE /BOOTHVILLE LA/ AT 01/12Z.

WHILE A VERY LIMITED TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF WRN FL...GREATER TORNADO
PROBABILITY IS FORECAST FROM SERN LA EWD INTO THE WRN FL PANHANDLE
TONIGHT...AS LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD INCREASES WITH THE APPROACH OF
GUSTAV. FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT-TERM INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO
SWOMCD #2193.

...PARTS OF WRN AND N CENTRAL ND...
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT NEAR SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT
WILL NOT OCCUR ACROSS ND...AS PERSISTENT CAPPING CONTINUES TO
PREVAIL. ELEVATED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR AND JUST N OF THE
BORDER -- INTO SERN SASKATCHEWAN/SWRN MANITOBA...WHERE WARM
ADVECTION APPEARS TO BE MAXIMIZED. WITH TIME...THIS DEVELOPMENT --
ROOTED ABOVE THE CAPPING LAYER -- SHOULD CONTINUE TO BACKBUILD SWD
INTO WRN ND. SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH
INCREASING MID-LEVEL FLOW SUGGESTS SOME POTENTIAL FOR HAIL...AND
THUS WILL MAINTAIN LOW /5%/ HAIL PROBABILITY ACROSS PARTS OF N
CENTRAL AND INTO WRN ND.

...WRN SD INTO SERN WY/NERN CO/WRN PORTIONS OF THE NEB PANHANDLE...
ISOLATED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED INVOF THE LEE TROUGH FROM NERN CO
NEWD TO NEAR THE BLACK HILLS...WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT FEATURING
MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL SHEAR. SOME INCREASE IN THE
DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD WILL OCCUR WITH TIME ACROSS THIS REGION...BUT
DIURNAL STABILIZATION SHOULD OFFSET THIS -- THUS LIKELY PRECLUDING A
MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN LOW /5%/ HAIL
AND WIND PROBABILITY ACROSS THIS REGION.

..GOSS.. 09/01/2008

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