SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010047
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-010215-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2193
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0747 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO COAST
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
VALID 010047Z - 010215Z
TORNADIC THREAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS A MORE
FAVORABLE KINEMATIC/THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT ASSOCIATED WITH
HURRICANE GUSTAV SHIFTS NWWD TOWARDS THE N-CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO
COAST. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED BY AROUND 03Z.
NUMEROUS MESOCYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS HAVE PERSISTED OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS OFF THE CNTRL FLORIDA WEST COAST IN THE OUTER
CONVECTIVE BANDS OF HURRICANE GUSTAV. HERE THE NEAR-SHORE
ENVIRONMENT HAS BEEN CHARACTERIZED BY SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE
MID/UPPER 70S /PER BUOY 42036 AND COASTAL OBSERVATIONS/...ALONG WITH
LARGE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS /AS SAMPLED BY 00Z TBW RAOB/. FARTHER
N/NW...STRATIFORM RAIN BANDS...LOWER MEAN MIXING RATIOS...AND MORE
MODERATE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS /PER 00Z LIX AND TLH RAOBS/ SHOULD
MITIGATE OVERALL TORNADIC THREAT IN THE NEAR-TERM.
HOWEVER...EXPECTED NWWD TRACK OF HURRICANE GUSTAV /PER LATEST NHC
GUIDANCE/ WOULD SUGGEST EXTRAPOLATION OF THE MORE FAVORABLE
KINEMATIC PROFILE AND RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL
CORRESPONDINGLY SHIFT NWWD DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. AS
SUCH...TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE DURING THE LATE EVENING INTO
EARLY MON.
..GRAMS.. 09/01/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...LIX...
29979059 30598985 30968876 31068734 30848572 30268470
29528440 29268532 29338693 28898886 28579022 29079071
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