DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 200545
SWODY2
SPC AC 200544

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1244 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2008

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH
DAKOTA...

...ND...

NWRN U.S. TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS WITH ASSOCIATED STRONG SPEED MAX EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE WRN
DAKOTAS BY 22/12Z. THIS FEATURE WILL SHARPEN LEE TROUGH ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS INDUCING A FAIRLY STOUT LLJ ACROSS THE DAKOTAS BY EARLY
EVENING. RESULTANT SLY FLOW WILL INITIALLY NOT BE PARTICULARLY
MOIST WITH SFC DEW POINTS EXPECTED IN THE 50S ACROSS THE NRN HIGH
PLAINS REGION EAST OF THE LEE TROUGH. ALOFT...NRN ROCKIES LAPSE
RATE PLUME WILL ADVECT OFF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS RESULTING IN
SIGNIFICANT INHIBITION AND CONVECTIVE SUPPRESSION SOUTH OF THE
CANADIAN BORDER UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL BE BREACHED WHEN TEMPERATURES
WARM INTO THE 90S...ESPECIALLY WITH STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. LATEST THINKING IS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY
AFTERNOON NORTH OF THE BORDER OVER SRN SASKATCHEWAN INTO PORTIONS OF
MANITOBA. WITH TIME...CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP SWD INTO PORTIONS
OF NRN ND. MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND RELATIVELY HIGH CLOUD BASES
SUGGEST ISOLATED HIGH BASED SUPERCELLS COULD EVOLVE ACROSS THE
SLIGHT RISK REGION. SRN EXTENT OF CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED DUE
PRIMARILY TO STRONG CAPPING AND MARGINAL MOISTURE. THUNDERSTORMS
COULD LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS STRONG COLD FRONT SURGES
INTO CNTRL ND BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

...FAY...

ERRATIC MOVEMENT OF FAY ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA INTO THE WRN
ATLANTIC...THEN POSSIBLY BACK WWD ALONG THE GA/FL BORDER WILL ENSURE
AT LEAST MODEST SHEAR IS MAINTAINED ACROSS MUCH OF NRN/CNTRL FL. IF
THIS SYSTEM INTENSIFIES AND MOVES BACK INLAND THEN AN INCREASED RISK
FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY WARRANT A SLIGHT RISK.

..DARROW.. 08/20/2008

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