SWODY3
SPC AC 200715
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0215 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2008
VALID 221200Z - 231200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...UPPER MS VALLEY TO MID MO VALLEY...
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY...ARCING SWWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS BY PEAK HEATING FRIDAY.
THIS FRONTAL ZONE WILL PROVIDE THE CONVERGENCE NECESSARY FOR DEEP
CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS WHEN
INSTABILITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED. ALTHOUGH MODELS SUGGEST A STRONG
SPEED MAX WILL ROTATE NEWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS INTO NWRN
ONTARIO...MUCH OF THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN WITHIN A POST
FRONTAL AIRMASS...SOMEWHAT REMOVED FROM THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS.
EVEN SO...SFC BASED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG ADVANCING
WIND SHIFT WITHIN A NARROW AXIS OF MODEST INSTABILITY/LAPSE RATES.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE MODE WILL BE
MULTI-CELLULAR IN NATURE...CERTAINLY CAPABLE OF GENERATING SOME HAIL
OR PERHAPS STRONG WINDS. HOWEVER...UNLESS STRONGER FLOW CAN
OVERSPREAD WARM SECTOR...OR INSTABILITY IS GREATER THAN
FORECAST...ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT MAY REMAIN TOO
MARGINAL TO WARRANT A SLIGHT RISK.
...FAY...
LOCATION AND INTENSITY OF FAY WILL LARGELY DICTATE ANY SEVERE
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SERN U.S. DURING THE DAY3 PERIOD. AT THIS TIME
THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING BOTH OF THESE ISSUES TO
WARRANT A RISK OF SEVERE. TO SEE THE LATEST FORECAST FOR
FAY...PLEASE VISIT THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT:
..DARROW.. 08/20/2008
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