SWODY3
SPC AC 120713
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0213 AM CDT TUE AUG 12 2008
VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL AND
SRN PLAINS...
...SYNOPSIS...
PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST DURING THE DAY THREE PERIOD WILL BE
UPPER LOW WHICH WILL MOVE SWD FROM SRN SASKATCHEWAN THROUGH THE NRN
HIGH PLAINS. THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT A WEAKER SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MAY PRECEDE THIS SYSTEM OVER THE MID MO VALLEY. IN THE LOW
LEVELS...NRN EXTENSION OF ATTENDANT SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN
QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS/WRN MN SWD THROUGH THE MID MO
VALLEY. HOWEVER...THE SWRN PORTION OF FRONT WILL SURGE SWD THROUGH
THE CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO THE SERN DEVELOPMENT OF
A STRONG ANTICYCLONE ALONG THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN AND NRN ROCKIES.
...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A COMPARABLY DRIER BOUNDARY
LAYER/DEEPER MIXING WILL EXIST ACROSS MUCH OF WRN/CNTRL TX INTO
PARTS OF OK WITH THE RICHEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /I.E. DEWPOINTS IN
THE 60S/ PRESENT AHEAD OF FRONT ACROSS KS INTO THE MID MO VALLEY.
THIS MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES TO YIELD
A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS BY AFTERNOON...WITH PROGRESSIVELY
WEAKER INSTABILITY WITH SWD EXTENT INTO WRN/CNTRL TX.
WHILE SOME TSTMS MAY LINGER FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING OVER PARTS OF NEB/KS...MORE VIGOROUS...DIURNAL STORM
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG FRONT BY AFTERNOON FROM ERN NEB/WRN IA
SWWD INTO WRN KS/ERN CO. THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR WITH
TIME SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED...SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS. THEREAFTER...LARGE-SCALE SETUP FAVORS UPSCALE GROWTH
INTO AN MCS ALONG SWD-MOVING COLD FRONT WITH A SEVERE THREAT
CONTINUING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO PORTIONS OF THE TX PNHDL AND OK.
..MEAD.. 08/12/2008
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