SWOD48
SPC AC 120810
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0310 AM CDT TUE AUG 12 2008
VALID 151200Z - 201200Z
...DISCUSSION...
LATEST MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE IS RELATIVELY CONSISTENT IN THE
EVOLUTION OF UPPER LOW OVER THE CNTRL U.S. THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. ON D4 /FRI AUG 15TH/...THE PRIMARY REGION OF INTEREST
APPEARS TO BE THE WRN EXTENSION OF SWD-MOVING COLD FRONT AND
ELEVATED TERRAIN OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. HERE...THE COLLOCATION
OF MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND RELATIVELY
STRONG SHEAR WILL RESULT IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE TSTMS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF COLD
FRONT...SETUP WILL FAVOR STORMS BEING UNDERCUT BY COOLER...MORE
STABLE POST-FRONTAL AIR WHICH MAY TEND TO LESSEN THE OVERALL SEVERE
THREAT.
BY D5 /SAT AUG 16TH/...ANY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE FOCUSED
ALONG COLD FRONT MOVING SWD THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS. HOWEVER...IT
APPEARS THAT THE STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR MAY RESIDE TO THE N OF
EFFECTIVE WARM SECTOR WHICH COULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE.
THEREAFTER...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE NEWD THROUGH THE LOWER/MID MS AND OH VALLEYS AS UPPER LOW
BEGINS TO SHIFT MORE EWD. AS SUCH...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR
SEVERE TSTMS ALONG AND E OF SYNOPTIC FRONT. THERE IS SOME
INDICATION THAT OVERALL SYSTEM BAROCLINICITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR MAY
TEND TO WEAKEN WITH TIME...LEAVING THE EXTENT OF SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL IN QUESTION. GIVEN THE ABOVE-MENTIONED
LIMITATIONS/UNCERTAINTY...NO SEVERE WEATHER AREAS WILL BE DELINEATED
THIS FORECAST.
..MEAD.. 08/12/2008
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