SWODY3
SPC AC 250714
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0214 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2008
VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SRN MN/WRN IA...
A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NRN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY AS A WELL-DEFINED 75 TO 85 KT MID-LEVEL JET CROSSES THE
NRN ROCKIES AND NRN HIGH PLAINS. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE EWD FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
WEDNESDAY. MODEL FORECASTS DISAGREE ON HOW MUCH CONVECTION WILL
INITIATE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE NAM SEEMS
REASONABLE WITH SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOPING FROM MN SWWD
ACROSS IA WHERE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD BE A BIT STRONGER THAN
AREAS FURTHER SOUTH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THE NRN END OF THE
INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS SRN MN AND WRN IA SHOW ENOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR
FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT. ASSUMING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN
INITIATE...A THREAT FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL WOULD BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION.
..BROYLES.. 08/25/2008
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