Monday, August 25, 2008

DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 250902
SWOD48
SPC AC 250901

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0401 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2008

VALID 281200Z - 021200Z

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE NRN U.S. LATE THIS UPCOMING WEEK. THIS TROUGH SHOULD MOVE
EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES
JUST AHEAD OF A WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL JET. MODEL FORECASTS RETURN
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NWD INTO THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
THE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS MOVING EWD INTO THE MS VALLEY FRIDAY.
SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS MOST LIKELY ON THE NRN EDGE OF THE
INSTABILITY AXIS WHERE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. IF THE MODELS HAVE THE
TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE TROUGH FORECAST REASONABLY WELL...THEN A
SEVERE THREAT COULD DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE TROUGH
DRIFTS EWD. HOWEVER...CAN NOT FORECAST A SEVERE THREAT AREA DUE TO
MODEL UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING THE MAGNITUDE AND EXACT LOCATION OF THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

..BROYLES.. 08/25/2008

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