SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250934
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-251100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2152
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0434 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL/SRN AL AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 862...
VALID 250934Z - 251100Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 862 CONTINUES.
THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF FAY REMAINS CENTERED
NEAR HATTIESBURG MS...WITH LITTLE NET MOVEMENT DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...MODELS SUGGEST A REDEVELOPMENT NORTH
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD MERIDIAN MS IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN NOW AND
12-15Z...IN RESPONSE TO THE PROGRESSION OF AT LEAST A COUPLE OF
IMPULSES AROUND THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATION.
A LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE BAND/SHEAR AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE INITIAL
IMPULSE IS IN THE PROCESS OF PIVOTING NORTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN
ALABAMA AND THE FAR WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. EMBEDDED WITHIN A
SLOW EXPANDING AREA OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...THIS FEATURE
LIKELY WILL REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR SHORT-LIVED INCREASES IN LOW-LEVEL
ROTATION AND POSSIBLE TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS.
RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT IT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AFTER 12Z AS IT
CONTINUES TO SHIFT INTO WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA. BUT...ANOTHER MAY
DEVELOP/SPREAD FARTHER TO THE EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE ...ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT IMPULSE.
WITH EASTWARD EXTENT AWAY FROM THE SURFACE LOW CENTER...AND A 30-40
KT LOW-LEVEL JET CORE TO ITS IMMEDIATE EAST...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE CONTINUING PRESENCE OF A
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER CHARACTERIZED BY LOWER/MID 70S DEW
POINTS...LOW- LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ALONG AN EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT NEAR OR
JUST NORTH OF THE FLORIDA/ALABAMA BORDER COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
SHORT-LIVED TORNADOES IN DISCRETE CELLS WHICH MAY CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION INTO MID MORNING.
..KERR.. 08/25/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...
33258807 33238793 33048706 32758638 32118541 31588521
30948532 30718584 30638635 30368687 30148751 30458826
32598840
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment