SWOD48
SPC AC 140815
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0315 AM CDT THU AUG 14 2008
VALID 171200Z - 221200Z
...DISCUSSION...
LATEST MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE
GRADUALLY OPENING AND SUBSEQUENT NEWD EJECTION OF CNTRL CONUS UPPER
LOW AS A STRONG UPSTREAM TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION. THIS PATTERN EVOLUTION WILL DRAW A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR
MASS NWD THROUGH THE MS AND OH VALLEYS AHEAD OF THE OPENING WAVE
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER EACH DAY. HOWEVER...WIND
FIELDS AND RESULTANT VERTICAL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN QUITE MARGINAL WHICH SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT THE
POTENTIAL FOR A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE EPISODE.
A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MAY DEVELOP BY THE END OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD OVER THE NRN PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF MORE INTENSE
AND PROGRESSIVE MIDLEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES.
WHILE NO AREAS WILL BE DELINEATED IN THIS FORECAST DUE TO
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TIMING OF THIS TROUGH...THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE
TO BE MONITORED.
..MEAD.. 08/14/2008
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