SWODY1
SPC AC 211625
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1125 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2008
VALID 211630Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
A RATHER STRONG UPPER TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER
THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND AFFECT
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
EARLY VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS RATHER WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS
OVER PARTS OF WESTERN SD/NEB AND EASTERN WY. HOWEVER...THE LEAD
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CAUSING THE MORNING CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD
EXIT AREA AND ALLOW FOR RELATIVELY STRONG HEATING/DESTABILIZATION
LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN ITS WAKE ALONG THE WY/SD/NEB BORDER.
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S...COUPLED WITH STEEP LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...WILL YIELD AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF UP TO 1000 J/KG AND
ONLY A WEAK CAP. LOW AND DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL
BECOME FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AND THE RISK OF
SUPERCELLS /3KM SRH OF 100-200 M2/S2 AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 40-50
KNOTS/. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THIS REGION WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
POSSIBLE. SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF THREAT IS UNCERTAIN INTO EASTERN
CO...BUT IT APPEARS POSSIBLE THAT ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS COULD
OCCUR AS FAR SOUTH AS THE PALMER RIDGE. THE THREAT ON THE NORTH
EDGE OVER ND WILL BE LIMITED BY INSTABILITY AND CLOUD COVER.
..HART/JEWELL.. 09/21/2008
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