SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211950
NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-212215-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2272
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0250 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...SE WY AND NE CO THROUGH WRN NEB AND SW SD
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 211950Z - 212215Z
THREAT FOR MAINLY ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY INCREASE
FROM SERN WY THROUGH WRN NEB...NE CO AND SW SD NEXT FEW HOURS. THE
OVERALL THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR PARTICULARLY ROBUST AT THIS
TIME...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.
A LEE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM WRN SD SWD THROUGH WRN NEB INTO ERN CO.
MODIFIED CP AIR WITH 50S BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS HAVE ADVECTED NWD
THROUGH THE WARM SECTOR EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY. AN AREA OF CLOUDS AND
ELEVATED CONVECTION CONTINUES FROM CNTRL SD THROUGH N CNTRL NEB
WITHIN ZONE OF LIFT ATTENDING A NEWD EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
TIMING OF THIS IMPULSE HAS NOT BEEN OPTIMAL...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE IS
DESTABILIZING IN ITS WAKE...AND SCATTERED STORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER
SERN WY. THESE STORMS HAVE FORMED WHERE THE CAP HAS BEEN WEAKENED BY
BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING AND MIXING WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE 40S
RESULTING IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND MLCAPE GENERALLY AOB 500 J/KG.
NEVERTHELESS...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND BULK SHEAR FROM 30-40
KT WILL SUPPORT UPDRAFT ROTATION AND A THREAT FOR HAIL WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS.
THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS CAPPED IN MOIST AXIS DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS
ACTIVITY FROM SW SD THROUGH WRN NEB AND NE CO WHERE HEATING HAS BEEN
DELAYED BY EARLIER CLOUDS. HOWEVER...AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES
TO WARM...CONVECTIVE INHIBITION MAY WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY FOR STORMS
TO FURTHER INTENSIFY AS THEY INTERCEPT THE MOIST AXIS. NEW
DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG LEE TROUGH THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
..DIAL.. 09/21/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...BOU...CYS...
43290225 42180206 40810216 40410291 40800443 42620420
43920380 44080275
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