SWODY1
SPC AC 290006
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0706 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2008
VALID 290100Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ...
...NEB/EASTERN SD/SOUTHWEST MN/WESTERN IA...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FEATURES BASE OF CANADIAN PRAIRIE UPPER TROUGH
DEVELOPING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER
MIDWEST...WITH PRIMARY SURFACE COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM WESTERN MN
INTO EASTERN SD AND NORTHERN/WESTERN NEB EARLY THIS EVENING. AIDED
BY LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS/FORCED ASCENT AND AN INCREASING LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME THIS EVENING...TSTMS WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST
SD/SOUTHWEST MN AND MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN NEB INTO WESTERN IA. THE
STRONGEST TSTMS...IN THE FORM OF WELL-ORGANIZED QUASI-LINEAR
MULTICELLS OR SOME SUPERCELLS /MAINLY ACROSS NEB/...WILL REMAIN
CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH EARLY/MID
EVENING. ALTHOUGH MARGINAL PREFRONTAL MOISTURE /MAINLY 50S F
DEWPOINTS/ SHOULD LEAD TO A QUICK DECOUPLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
BY MID EVENING...INCREASING WARM ADVECTION/MOISTURE TRANSPORT REGIME
AND STRENGTHENING FLOW ALOFT/STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD
MAINTAIN AN ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL RISK LATE THIS EVENING AND PERHAPS
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF NEB/FAR WESTERN IA. FOR
ADDITIONAL SHORT TERM INFORMATION...SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2297.
..GUYER.. 09/29/2008
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