SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290004
IAZ000-MNZ000-SDZ000-NEZ000-290200-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2297
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0704 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN SD THROUGH NERN NEB
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 909...
VALID 290004Z - 290200Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 909
CONTINUES.
THE STRONGER STORMS WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS THROUGH MID-LATE EVENING. ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY BUILD SOUTH THROUGH CNTRL AND E CNTRL NEB DURING NEXT COUPLE
HOURS...AND WW 909 MIGHT NEED TO BE LOCALLY EXTENDED FARTHER SOUTH
INTO NEB.
THIS EVENING A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM ERN SD SWWD THROUGH CNTRL AND
SW NEB. AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY EXISTS AHEAD OF FRONT WITH
MLCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG AND 8 C/KM 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES. SWLY LOW
LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN IN WARM SECTOR WITHIN ZONE OF HEIGHT FALLS
RESULTING FROM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND
UPPER MS VALLEY. FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
STRENGTHENING SWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING. BULK SHEAR OF 30-35 KT WILL
SUPPORT UPDRAFT ROTATION IN SOME STORMS. THIS ALONG WITH A FAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL MAINTAIN A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL
THROUGH MID EVENING.
..DIAL.. 09/29/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...
43179660 42259695 41529742 41179822 41259956 41999975
42859913 43909862 44249790 44489648 43919627
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