SWODY3
SPC AC 180729
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2008
VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
STRONGEST POLAR WLYS WILL REMAIN OVER CANADA ON SATURDAY WITH THE
PRIMARY FEATURE CONTINUING TO BE THE STRONG VORTEX MEANDERING ACROSS
FAR NRN QUEBEC/HUDSON'S BAY. NEXT IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
WILL DIG INTO THE BASE OF THE LOW ACROSS ONTARIO ON
SATURDAY...SENDING ANOTHER COLD FRONT SEWD ACROSS THE UPR MS VLY AND
GRTLKS REGIONS. TO THE W...A WEAKENING SRN BRANCH WAVE WILL
PROGRESS NEWD FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN W/GRT BASIN ENE INTO THE
NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLNS BY 12Z SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...A WEAK SUBTROPICAL
IMPULSE EXPECTED TO BE MOVING INTO THE MS VLY BY THE BEGINNING OF
THE PD WILL REMAIN QSTNRY...DETACHED FROM THE STRONGER FLOW FARTHER
TO THE N.
...UPR MS VLY/GRTLKS REGION...
RESIDUAL SFC RIDGE WILL REMAIN SITUATED FROM THE ERN SEABOARD SWWD
INTO THE WRN GULF STATES...LIKELY LIMITING A STRONG RETURN OF
MOISTURE NWD. HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY LAYER VCNTY THE SEWD MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MODIFY...ESPECIALLY AS A WARM PLUME
BETWEEN H85-H7 STREAMS EWD TOWARD THE GRTLKS REGION CAPPING OFF THE
LLVLS. IT APPEARS THE CAP WILL HOLD OVER MOST OF THE LENGTH OF THE
FRONT EXCEPT PERHAPS FROM PARTS OF MI EWD INTO ONTARIO WHERE SCTD
TSTMS MAY ERUPT SATURDAY AFTN/EVE...THOUGH MASS CONVERGENCE IS APT
TO BE WEAKENING. ONLY MODEST MOISTURE...INCREASING CAPPING CONCERNS
AND THE WEAKENING CONVERGENCE WILL PRECLUDE SVR PROBABILITIES ATTM.
...MID MS VLY...
COLD POCKET ALOFT ASSOCD WITH THE SUBTROPICAL IMPULSE WILL AID IN
DESTABILIZATION OF THE GRADUALLY MOISTENING COLUMN SATURDAY AFTN
WITH SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT OF WDLY SCTD SHOWERS/TSTMS. VERTICAL
SHEAR WILL BE WEAK...BUT STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY YIELD ISOLD STRONG
STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS/SMALL HAIL. SVR PROSPECTS WILL DEPEND
HIGHLY ON THE DEGREE OF INSOLATION...WHICH IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE
ATTM.
..RACY.. 09/18/2008
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