Thursday, September 18, 2008

DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 180846
SWOD48
SPC AC 180845

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0345 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2008

VALID 211200Z - 261200Z

...DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY MEDIUM RANGE SVR CONCERN WILL BE CONFINED TO THE NRN/CNTRL
PLNS STATES. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF MID-LVL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMANATING FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL AMPLIFY
INTO THE NWRN STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN EJECT
ENE MID-WEEK ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL PLNS. BY THEN...AT LEAST SOME
GULF MOISTURE WILL HAVE RETURNED NWD BENEATH A LIKELY MODEST
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME SVR THREAT...BUT
MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES OF THE TROUGH AND ASSOCD COLD FRONT WILL
PRECLUDE PINNING DOWN A SPECIFIC HIGH-END SVR THREAT AT THIS POINT.

..RACY.. 09/18/2008

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