SWODY1
SPC AC 071251
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0751 AM CDT TUE OCT 07 2008
VALID 071300Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER
VALLEY/MID SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...
...MID SOUTH INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST...
STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG ESEWD ACROSS THE MID
SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH ASSOCIATED STRENGTHENING WSWLY H5 FLOW
OVERSPREADING THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST. SURFACE
COLD FRONT NOW MOVING ACROSS THE OZARK REGION/ERN TX WILL LIKEWISE
ADVANCE STEADILY EWD THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND LIKELY EXTEND ALONG OR
JUST WEST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY LATER TODAY. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AXIS OF LOWER 70F SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE ALREADY IN PLACE
AND WILL CONTINUE ADVECTING GENERALLY NWD THROUGH THE DAY INTO
PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH. IN ADDITION...12Z SOUNDINGS FROM SIL AND
LCH INDICATE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN RELATIVELY STEEP WITHIN
BROAD MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY NOW
OVERSPREADING THIS REGION.
WITH CONTINUED ASCENT WITHIN RESERVOIR OF WEAK TO MODERATE
MUCAPE...EXPECT SCATTERED MOIST CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH
OF THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE DAY. ALTHOUGH MORE VIGOROUS
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR NEAR THE FRONT AS DIURNAL HEATING SUPPORTS
MODERATE MLCAPE /ACCORDING TO MODIFIED 12Z LCH SOUNDING/ AND
DIMINISHES CINH. APPEARS SETUP WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE
FOR SEVERE MULTICELLS AND A FEW SUPERCELLS AHEAD OF STRONG MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY FROM PARTS OF SWRN LA/ERN AR
ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE EVENING. ISOLATED
TORNADOES CAN NOT BE DISCOUNTED GIVEN THE RICH GULF MOISTURE AND
DEGREE OF INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...DESPITE THE MARGINAL LOW
LEVEL SHEAR FORECAST. HOWEVER...PRIMARY THREATS MAY BE FROM
DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. OVERNIGHT...BROAD REGION OF
MODEST SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW AND ASSOCIATED 25-35 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL SHIFT SEWD ACROSS MORE OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION.
THEREFORE...ALTHOUGH OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
AWAY FROM THE COAST THIS EVENING...PERSISTENT INFLUX OF RICH GULF
MOISTURE SHOULD MAINTAIN THREAT OF ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
OVERNIGHT.
..EVANS.. 10/07/2008
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