SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071247
LAZ000-TXZ000-071415-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2313
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0747 AM CDT TUE OCT 07 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SOUTHEAST TX INTO LA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 071247Z - 071415Z
AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SEVERE RISK MAY INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING
ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST TX INTO LA. THE NEED FOR A WATCH IN THE SHORT
TERM IS UNCLEAR...BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH.
30-KT EAST-MOVING/NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED CONVECTIVE LINE
ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST TX HAS INTENSIFIED TO A DEGREE OVER THE PAST
HOUR...WITH SOME MODEST BOWING NORTHEAST OF THE HOUSTON AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. GIVEN A VERY MOIST DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS WITH LOW TO MID
70S F DEWPOINTS AND GRADUAL HEATING THROUGH THE MORNING...POTENTIAL
WILL EXIST FOR THIS CONVECTIVE LINE AND/OR LEADING MORE DISCRETE
DEVELOPMENT TO INTENSIFY THROUGH THE MORNING ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST
TX/MUCH OF LA. OBSERVED 12Z RAOBS FROM LAKE CHARLES/NEW ORLEANS
REFLECT MODERATE BUOYANCY AND ONLY WEAK INHIBITION...WITH MODIFIED
VERSIONS OF THESE SOUNDINGS IMPLYING AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
WIND DAMAGE /AND PERHAPS A TORNADO/ AS TEMPERATURES DIURNALLY WARM
THROUGH THE 80S F TODAY. MORNING RAOBS/WSR-88D DERIVED WINDS SUGGEST
VERTICAL SHEAR BECOMES MORE MARGINAL WITH SOUTH EXTENT ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TX/LA...BUT AROUND 30-35 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO QUASI-ORGANIZED MAINLY MULTICELLULAR/LINEAR
ORGANIZATION.
..GUYER.. 10/07/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV...HGX...
31119398 31999330 31839163 29899211 29539424 28549606
29409621 30289498
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