Saturday, October 18, 2008

DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 181608
SWODY2
SPC AC 181607

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1107 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2008

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN FORECASTING A LARGELY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN
FOR THE DAY 2 PERIOD ACROSS THE CONUS AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES EWD
AWAY FROM THE ERN SEABOARD. THE TSTM OUTLOOK WILL MAINTAIN A NO
TSTM FORECAST AS OVERALL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
FAIRLY LIMITED TO SUPPORT A GREATER THAN 10% PROBABILITY OF TSTMS
ACROSS THE LOWER 48 STATES.

...WRN GREAT LAKES AND CENTRAL PLAINS...
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY /MUCAPE 100-200 J/KG/ DEVELOPING SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
CENTRAL/NRN WI WITHIN LOW LEVEL WAA/MOISTENING REGIME BENEATH MID
LEVEL COOLING ACCOMPANYING AN AMPLIFYING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. IN
ADDITION TO THIS REGION...A FEW TSTMS ALSO CANNOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN
VICINITY OF AN EAST-SOUTHEAST ADVANCING COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE TSTM THREAT SHOULD REMAIN
GENERALLY LOW /LESS THAN 10%/ ACROSS BOTH REGIONS...AND THUS WILL
NOT INTRODUCE ANY GENERAL TSTM AREAS.

..PETERS.. 10/18/2008

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

No comments: