SWODY1
SPC AC 011255
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0755 AM CDT SAT NOV 01 2008
VALID 011300Z - 021200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...CA THROUGH CNTRL AND NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...
A BROAD...SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE ERN
PACIFIC INTO THE WRN STATES THROUGH SUNDAY. SERIES OF IMPULSES WILL
CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH TODAY. LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THESE FEATURES WILL SUPPORT SCTD AREAS OF SHOWERS. A MORE
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL REACH THE CA CST THIS EVENING AND
MOVE INLAND TONIGHT. COLDER AIR ALOFT WITH TROUGH MOVING OVER
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ENHANCE DESTABILIZATION AND
FOSTER INCREASED TSTM POTENTIAL...MAINLY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN LIMITED...STRENGTH OF LOW TO MID
LEVEL SPEED SHEAR COULD SUPPORT A FEW SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS. AT THE
SAME TIME...TERRAIN-INDUCED NEAR-SFC SLY FLOW WILL BE PRESENT TO
ENHANCE LOW-LVL SHEAR. IF IT APPEARS THAT MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW-LVL
DESTABILIZATION WILL BE REALIZED THAN IS NOW EXPECTED...INTRODUCTION
OF A LOW PROBABILITY TORNADO THREAT MAY BE REQUIRED IN LATER
OUTLOOKS.
...NE TX THROUGH LWR MS VLY...
COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER CNTRL AR WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS IT DROPS SSE THROUGH LA AND TO THE CNTRL GULF CST
LATER TODAY. A CORRIDOR OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL PERSIST ALONG
LOW-LVL MOIST AXIS FROM E TX INTO AR. HOWEVER...LIFT
ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH OF
INSTABILITY AXIS AND TOWARD THE GULF CSTL REGION...WHERE SWWD
ADVECTION OF CP AIR WILL MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER.
..SMITH/CORFIDI.. 11/01/2008
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