SWOD48
SPC AC 010857
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0357 AM CDT SAT NOV 01 2008
VALID 041200Z - 091200Z
...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN
PLAINS INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU/LWR MISSOURI VALLEY NEXT WEDNESDAY...
MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT FAIRLY
STRONG SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL ACCOMPANY AN AMPLIFIED POLAR TROUGH
TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF THE
COMING WORK WEEK. AND...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT A SIGNIFICANT
RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL FINALLY DEVELOP
BY WEDNESDAY...SUPPORTING INCREASING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
CENTRAL STATES. THE WARM SECTOR MAY NOT BECOME PARTICULARLY BROAD
DUE TO THE CONTINUING PRESENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES INTO LATE WEEK. BUT...IT SEEMS PROBABLE THAT AT LEAST A
MODEST OUTBREAK OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL OCCUR IN A CORRIDOR FROM
PARTS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS NORTHWARD INTO IOWA...NEXT WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD CONTINUES TO EXIST AMONG THE MODELS AND MREF
MEMBERS CONCERNING THE STORM EVOLUTION...INCLUDING THE TRACK OF THE
PRIMARY SURFACE LOW. IF THE MORE SOUTHERN TRACK OF THE LATEST GFS
COMES TO FRUITION /IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE DEVELOPING RETURN
FLOW/...THEN THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL PROBABLY BE SIGNIFICANTLY
GREATER THAN IF THE MORE NORTHERN TRACK OF THE ECMWF VERIFIES.
..KERR.. 11/01/2008
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