SWODY1
SPC AC 100600
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1200 AM CST MON NOV 10 2008
VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/EAST TX
AND SOUTHERN OK...
...SYNOPSIS...
PRIMARY LARGE SCALE FEATURE OF CONSEQUENCE FOR DEEP CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL TODAY WILL BE A CONSIDERABLE UPPER TROUGH/JET ALOFT
ADVANCING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TO THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS BY EARLY TUESDAY. AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW/COLD
FRONT...AN INCREASINGLY MOIST/UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR ESPECIALLY ACROSS
TX WILL LEAD TO AN UPSWING IN SEVERE POTENTIAL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. ASIDE FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...PROSPECTS
FOR TSTMS WILL BE QUITE LIMITED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
...MUCH OF CENTRAL/EAST TX AND SOUTHERN OK/WESTERN LA...
A BROAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT DAYBREAK
THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TX/WESTERN OK INTO SOUTHWEST KS.
SOME OF THE STRONGER TSTMS MAY POSE A RISK FOR HAIL TO SEVERE LEVELS
THIS MORNING...BUT A MORE APPRECIABLE SEVERE RISK WILL EVOLVE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF TX.
EARLIER EVENING 00Z OBSERVED RAOB FROM BROWNSVILLE TX SAMPLED A
RATHER MOISTURE-RICH BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH A 100 MB MEAN MIXING
RATIO OF 14.0 G/KG...ACROSS FAR SOUTH TX AND THE FAR WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. ALTHOUGH TRAJECTORIES ARE SOMEWHAT HAMPERED BY LOW LEVEL
RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...A NARROW AXIS OF
MODIFIED GULF AIR WILL QUICKLY RETURN NORTHWARD ACROSS TX TODAY IN
ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.
IN ADDITION TO INHERENT QUESTIONS REGARDING THE TIMING/QUALITY OF
MOISTURE RETURN NORTHWARD ACROSS TX...CONSIDERABLE CLOUD
COVER/PRECIPITATION WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF LOW
LEVEL DESTABILIZATION AND ASSOCIATED POTENTIAL FOR
SURFACE/NEAR-SURFACE BASED TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON. PROVIDED SUFFICIENT
INSOLATION/MIXING...THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE SURFACE BASED
TSTMS TO DEVELOP ALONG/JUST EAST OF A DRYLINE/SURFACE TROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL TX. HIGHLY FAVORABLE KINEMATIC FIELDS AND
VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR /50-70 KT 0-6 KM/ WILL SUPPORT
WELL-ORGANIZED TSTMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
MIDDLE 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO CENTRAL TX AND THE TX HILL
COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON...MORE THAN SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS
WILL SUPPORT A RISK FOR SOME TORNADOES...WITH SEVERE HAIL/DAMAGING
WINDS AS WELL.
A SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WELL THROUGH THE NIGHT...MOST
LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST TX...AND EVENTUALLY
WESTERN LA. THE POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL...ALONG WITH A
TORNADO RISK...WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
A POTENTIAL MCS AND/OR WITH ANY QUASI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS.
...TX PANHANDLE AND WESTERN/NORTHERN OK INTO SOUTHERN KS...
MOISTURE RETURN/SURFACE DESTABILIZATION WILL ESPECIALLY BE LIMITED
WITH NORTH EXTENT IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LOW AND SURFACE
LOW/TRIPLE POINT ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE/WESTERN OK. ASIDE FROM
MORNING HAIL POTENTIAL...PROVIDED SUFFICIENT INSOLATION/MODEST
HEATING THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW SEVERE TSTMS CAPABLE OF SEVERE
HAIL/STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. A
ROGUE TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN VICINITY OF THE TRIPLE
POINT/SURFACE OCCLUSION ACROSS THE EASTERN/NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE AND
WESTERN OK. HOWEVER...OVERALL SCENARIO DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT A
CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK GIVEN THE LIMITED MOISTURE/BUOYANCY.
..GUYER/BOTHWELL.. 11/10/2008
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment