SWODY2
SPC AC 100645
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1245 AM CST MON NOV 10 2008
VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF SERN TX INTO WRN
LA...
...SYNOPSIS...
COMPLEX SPLIT FLOW UPPER PATTERN WILL PERSIST TUESDAY. A VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER AZ/NM AS OF MONDAY MORNING WILL REACH THE MID
MS VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE DEAMPLIFYING AS IT MOVES INTO THE
MEAN RIDGE POSITION OVER THE OH VALLEY. FARTHER WEST A SRN STREAM
POSITIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH WILL ADVANCE THROUGH NRN MEXICO AND WRN
TX...REACHING CNTRL TX LATER TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT INITIALLY
EXTENDING FROM A WEAK LOW OVER KS SSWWD TO NEAR THE BIG BEND AREA OF
TX WILL ADVANCE SE DURING THE DAY.
...ERN TX INTO A PORTION OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY...
AXIS OF MID TO UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS WILL PERSIST IN PRE-FRONTAL
WARM SECTOR FROM CNTRL TO SE TX WITH NEAR 60 FARTHER NE INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY. STORMS WILL LIKELY BE IN PROGRESS EARLY TUESDAY
ALONG WARM CONVEYOR BELT FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO PARTS OF
CNTRL AND ERN TX. THE 0-2 KM HODOGRAPHS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A
THREAT OF LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES MAINLY OVER PARTS OF CNTRL THROUGH
S CNTRL TX EARLY TUESDAY WHERE STORMS MAY BE ROOTED NEAR THE
SURFACE. FARTHER NE TOWARD NE TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY...THE
STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATED ABOVE A STABLE SURFACE LAYER.
HOWEVER...THE STRONGER STORMS MAY STILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL
GIVEN SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR.
AS THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES NE TOWARD THE OH VALLEY
THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL SHIFT NEWD AWAY FROM THE WARM SECTOR WITH A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND HODOGRAPHS SIZE.
HOWEVER...BULK SHEAR OF 40-45 KT WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR A THREAT
OF ORGANIZED STORMS. MAIN UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME IS HOW MUCH
DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR IN WARM SECTOR GIVEN LIKELIHOOD OF
ONGOING CONVECTION. FEED OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR FROM S TX WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE INSTABILITY OVER PARTS OF CNTRL
THROUGH SE TX. STORMS MAY CONTINUE DEVELOPING IN WARM MOIST SECTOR
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY. HEIGHT FALLS AND
COOLING ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH UPSTREAM POSITIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH
WILL BEGIN TO OVERTAKE FRONTAL ZONE OVERNIGHT. THIS MAY REINVIGORATE
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONT LATER IN THE
PERIOD. TENDENCY FOR FLOW IN THE 850-750 MB LAYER TO WEAKEN WITH
TIME AND POTENTIAL FOR EARLY CONVECTION COULD SERVE AS LIMITING
FACTORS FOR A MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT.
..DIAL.. 11/10/2008
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment