Sunday, November 9, 2008

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 091637
SWODY1
SPC AC 091634

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1034 AM CST SUN NOV 09 2008

VALID 091630Z - 101200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SRN PLAINS TONIGHT...
A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE EWD OVER AZ/NM TODAY AND REACH THE SRN HIGH PLAINS
OVERNIGHT. THE APPROACH OF THIS MID LEVEL WAVE WILL INDUCE
INCREASING SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS TX/OK LATER TODAY/TONIGHT AND
AN ATTENDANT NWD INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. MUCH OF THE
MOISTURE RETURN AND RESULTANT DESTABILIZATION WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL
LATE TONIGHT WHEN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BECOME MORE PROBABLE
ACROSS TX/OK. ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR MAY
BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE HAIL...BUT THE SEVERE THREAT LATE TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN
MARGINAL.

...SRN GREAT BASIN TO WRN NM...
THE TROUGH OVER THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY WILL MOVE EWD TODAY...WITH
A BELT OF STRONG MID LEVEL ASCENT AND MOISTENING ACCOMPANYING THE
WAVE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
THIS ZONE OF ASCENT AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES SHIFT EWD FROM SRN NV
TOWARD WRN NM THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.

..THOMPSON/GRAMS.. 11/09/2008

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